To discuss the implications of global and regional economic trends and prospects for the uae economy in 2015 and beyond. The slowdown in the economic activity can be attributed mainly to fall in. Dubai exports, the export promotion agency of the department of economic development in dubai, was created to ensure the success of the exports sector in dubai and the uae, providing constant guidance, advice and practical support to both. Raising its outlook for the global economy, the imf said in its latest world economic outlook that growth is expected to rise to 3. The duration of the outbreak and its impact on global travel and trade present considerable downside risk to the outlook. Restrictions on movement of people, goods and services, and containment measures such as factory closures have cut manufacturing and domestic demand sharply in china. Uae economic growth momentum at turning point, says imf around 3 per cent growth rate forecast for 202021 on expo, government stimulus and higher oil prices dark clouds over the the springs, dubai. Due to occasional changes in methodology and data, the world bank no longer compares rankings between years, as we do here. The economy of sharjah is highly diversified by regional standards, with oil and gas contributing less than 6% to gdp, and no individual sector accounting for more than 20%. Gccs economic growth in 2018 expected the fastest since 2015. This report is compiled with highlevel update and summary of the market conditions and impactful economic highlights. Oecd ilibrary oecd economic outlook, volume 2018 issue 1. This follows a number of other announcements over the last few weeks including a new stimulus package for abu dhabi. In line with recovery in other parts of the region, uaes economy will continue to gain momentum in 2018, driven by an expanding nonoil sector, policy recalibration, and massive infrastructure investments.
The economy of the united arab emirates or uae is the second largest in the middle east after saudi arabia, with a gross domestic product gdp of usd 414 billion aed 1. Middle east recovery blown off course as coronavirus spreads published 23 march 2020. However, saudi arabias low debt level about 19% of gdp means it can finance a larger deficit if needed, although it is still. Dubais economy is among the most diversified in the region, thanks to factors such as a highly attractive business environment that has brought in large amounts of foreign investment. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in europe and asia. Oil production capacity is expected to increase and the strength of the nonoil economy will boost prospects particularly later in the forecast period as megaproject implementation ramps up ahead of dubai s hosting of expo 2020 expected to draw in 25 million visitors. Sharjah 2018 the economy of sharjah is highly diversified by regional standards, with oil and gas contributing less than 6% to gdp, and no individual sector accounting for more than 20%. Table 2 united arab emirates macro outlook indicators annual percent change unless indicated otherwise 2014 2015 2016 e 2017 f 2018 f 2019 f real gdp growth, at constant market prices 3. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by to 3. Outlook for the performance of dubais economy in 2018 41. Economic outlook report 2018 03 dear our valued clients, we are very pleased to release the economic outlook report 2018 to you. The oecd economic outlook is the oecds twiceyearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.
Such contribution includes banking, tourism, commerce and real estate. Economic growth in mena is projected to rebound in 2018, thanks to the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies and reforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede at least in the fighting against isis. Uae economic outlook 2015 towards a knowledge based economy date. Severe, shortlived downturn in china, where gdp growth falls below 5% in 2020 after 6. In 2018, the rate of taiwans economic growth is forecast to slow slightly from 2017, but it is still expected to hold firm.
Real gdp growth in the uae is estimated to have slowed considerably from 3. During the years preceding the global economic crisis the uaes economy was performing fairly. Thanks to a mild upturn in oil prices and fiscal stimulus in 2018, the economy should gradually return to more robust growth, despite some. Dubai 2018 dubais economy is among the most diversified in the region, thanks to factors such as a highly attractive business environment that has brought in large amounts of foreign investment. Composite indicator, has shown that gdp growth has strengthened. Oil outlook 8 we forecast brent oil futures at an average of usd 56b in 2018. Figure 1 united arab emirates annual gdp growth rate.
Economic growth has been strong but is projected to moderate in 2019 and 2020. Equity strategy expect high single digit returns in the us and low teen returns in ems. Executive directors noted of the challenges the uae economy has been facing, particularly a prolonged decline in oil prices, and commended the. The united arab emirates economic freedom score is 76. Taimur khan senior analyst please refer to the important notice at the end of this report. Oil production capacity is expected to increase and the strength of the nonoil economy will boost prospects particularly later in the forecast period as megaproject implementation ramps up ahead of dubais hosting of expo 2020 expected to draw in 25 million visitors. The uae will remain politically stable in 202024 despite rising regional tensions centred on iran. Annual economic report 2018 bank for international. The emirate has had particular success in developing its industrial and manufacturing sector through a network of free zones and industrial zones that continues to develop and expand, and it is one of the main industrial. Imf forecasts economic recovery for middle east economies. The gcc in 2020 outlook for the gulf and the global economy. As per imf estimates, uae is expected to double its gdp growth rate in 2018 to around 3. The september quarterly uk economic outlook report looks at the challenges businesses are facing and what they should plan for, including brexit outcomes and areas of growth.
Kuwait, oman, qatar, saudi arabia and the united arab emirates, has undergone rapid. The rate of expansion appears to have peaked in some major economies and growth has become less synchronized. Middle east, is a quarterly economic forecast for the region prepared directly for the finance profession. Egypt economy gdp, inflation, cpi and interest rate. Policymakers can maintain the current economic upswing beyond the short term by tackling structural reforms, rebuilding monetary and fiscal policy space to react to future threats and encouraging prompt implementation of regulatory reforms, the bank for international settlements bis writes in its annual economic report. Global economic prospects january 2018 economic outlook. World bank doing business 2018, world economic forum global competitiveness index 201718.
This page has economic forecasts for the united arab emirates including a longterm outlook for the next decades, plus mediumterm expectations for the next four quarters and shortterm market predictions for the next release affecting the the united arab emirates economy. The united arab emirates in the postglobal crisis are challenged, therefore, by a weaker global. Outlook for the gulf and the global economy is a white paper written by the economist intelligence unit and sponsored by the qatar financial centre qfc authority. Beyond 2017, overall gdp growth is expected to recover to 2. These quickresponse articles analyse key events in terms of how we expect them to affect our political and economic forecast, and are closely tied to the structure of our country report service. United arab emirates and global competitiveness 2017 62 2. Uae economic outlook ambitious plans longer term, the economy will bene. Even so, the unemployment rate will continue to decline, but remain high. Uae economic growth momentum at turning point, says imf. The outlook is similarly positive for oil importers. For any feedback about dubai ded services please click here.
This led to financial market disruptions in qatar, where nonresident deposits. Over the course of 2018, the central bank of the uaes overall augmented economic. The imf ascribed uae s potentially strong economic growth in world economic outlook report to the increased contribution of nonpetroleum sectors, which registered a growth average of more than 6% in 2014 and 2015. The positive outlook for asiapacific is linked to an improved outlook for chinas economy. Table 2 united arab emirates macro poverty outlook indicators annual percent change unless indicated otherwise 2015 2016 2017 e 2018 f 2019 f 2020 f real gdp growth, at constant market prices 3. For further details, please see our recent note uae economic update. This report examines the uae and some of the worlds economic giants such as the united states, the uk, the european union, china, japan and other asian countries which are experienced in terms of readiness in managing risks and global economic shifts in the future. Economic outlook looks positive this year and in 2019, thanks to the rising oil prices, expansionary fiscal policy and relative.
United arab emirates economic forecasts 20202022 outlook. It is a part of our constant endeavors to provide valuable insights to our clients. United arab recent developments gres and higher fees. Despite producing little oil, growth has been affected in recent years by the knockon effects of the fall in international oil prices and a consequent slowdown in neighbouring hydrocarbonsdependent territories. Gcc macro economic outlook 7 the outlook for the gcc economies at the start of 2018 is constructive. The international monetary fund expects the united arab emirates economic growth to nearly triple next year as the countrys largest sheikhdom, abu dhabi, benefits from an expected recovery. In japan, korea, australia and indonesia, growth also hit hard then gradual recovery.
Abu dhabi and dubai announce packages to bolster economic activity, published on 7 june 2018. According to the economic report 2018 released by the uae s ministry of economy, the estimated gdp for 2017 rose by 0. Real gdp growth will pickup in 2020 with the hosting of expo 2020, and higher oil prices. A possible transfer of power in abu dhabi from the current ruler, who is in poor health, to the crown prince will go smoothly. Imf forecasts economic recovery for middle east economies in 2018 uae economy to grow 3. Economic research global data watch 1822 june 18 june 2018. Critical to the outlook for a rate hike at the august meeting will. Economic performance takes a turn for the worse as virus hits trade and tourism. In june 2017, bahrain, saudi arabia, the united arab emirates, and the arab republic of egypt cut diplomatic and economic ties with qatar. The direct impact on the uae economy through airline traffic, tourism, real estate investment, and the financial sector is expected to be limited as trade with qatar accounts for less than 1 percent of the uaes total trade. Industrial development in the united arab emirates 64 v. The outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. The improvement will be principally about iran and saudi arabia, with a. The following table shows the contribution of the economic sectors in the gdp for 2017.
The middle eastern economy is expected to recover in 2020, following whats shaping up to be the weakest performance on record this year. In this edition, kpmgs chief economist, yael selfin covers. United arab emirates economic growth economic growth is expected to decelerate this year on a weaker oil sector, while the nonoil sector is also expected to contract. This 6 per cent growth of india will be at par with chinas growth for 2020 predicted by the imf. Privatesector capital investment is expected to weaken, as the introduction of cuttingedge equipment by semiconductor manufacturers is likely to pause in 2018. Apr 07, 2020 united arab emirates economic growth economic growth is expected to decelerate this year on a weaker oil sector, while the nonoil sector is also expected to contract. Growth was weak but stabilising until the coronavirus covid19 hit. The impact on the rest of the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower. Armani hotel, dubai agenda day one tuesday, december 16th 09. Sami al qamzi, director general, dubai department of economic development. Distribution of compensations of employees by economic sectors 57 iv. All seaborne and air travel links from the involved countries to qatar were shut and bank lending to qatar was restricted.
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